July 2021 wrap-up of key economic updates

CommSec CommSec

30 July 2021

Reporting Season officially starts this week. Inside, we’ll highlight the key themes and also discuss the likely winners and losers across industry sectors. We’ll also look at the latest unemployment figures, which fell to a 10½-year low in June, and the state of the improving housing construction sector.

Key topics:

  • Reporting Season
  • Jobless rate
  • Housing
  • Earnings results in the next six weeks should justify current lofty valuations of the Australian sharemarket. The hard part is what comes next. The Delta variant of the virus has been a game changer – both here in Australia and across the globe. So CommSec economists expect a high degree of caution to be exhibited by key personnel at listed companies. Given the highly uncertain health and economic outlooks, CommSec conservatively forecast the S&P/ASX 200 index to be in a range of 7,400-7,700 points by mid-2022.

    Read more here.

    Employment rose by 29,100 jobs in June after rising by 115,100 jobs in May. Full-time jobs rose by 51,600 and part-time jobs fell by 22,500 positions. The unemployment rate fell from 5.1 per cent to a 10½-year low of 4.9 per cent in June and the Tasmanian jobless rate stands at a 12-year low of 4.5 per cent. The Reserve Bank wants three preconditions met before even thinking about increasing interest rates; the jobless rate near 4 per cent; wages lifting at a 3 per cent annual rate; and annual inflation sustainably holding between 2-3 per cent. While recent news in the job market is good, there is still some way to go to meet the broader policymaker goals.

    Read more here.

    The total number of dwelling starts rose by 0.2 per cent to a 2½-year high of 51,662 units in the March quarter. Starts are up 13.1 per cent on the year. Total house starts rose by 5.9 per cent to a record high (since September 1969) of 36,395 units to be up by 40.6 per cent from a year ago. And at the end of March a record 75,824 houses were being built. Australia’s property sector has strong momentum with residential construction to remain elevated over the next 18 months. Shares of building materials companies and property developers continue to perform well due to strong demand for new homes and renovation activity.

    Read more here.

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